Less than four years ago, the interpretive consensus said that the US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the relocation of the American embassy to the capital would ignite the Middle East. And in an Israeli initiative. We live in a different political world. In a meeting to be hosted by Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, one representative of Saudi Arabia is missing. The lack of Saudis reflects the complexity of the new strategic deployment in the Middle East.
The reason for the preparations of the Sunni Arab states led by Israel is the nuclear agreement that is being formed with Iran, which is about to be signed sooner or later in Vienna.
"When the nuclear deal is signed, it will be an absolute victory for Iran. It is no different from a Taliban victory (following the American defeat in Afghanistan), and a victory for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards," Hussein Aga writes in a founding article in the online journal Purin Polisi.
Blinken and Bennett, Photo: Oren Ben Hakon, IPA
The Iranians are doing whatever they please in their areas of hegemony, and are not afraid of a harsh response from the Americans.
Moreover, the blows, such as those of the Houthis against Saudi oil facilities in Jeddah, were intended to hasten the Americans in Vienna.
Israel is now getting a role it never had before.
To some extent, it is becoming a link between part of the Arab world and the United States. This is especially true of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, whose leaders do not answer President Biden's phone calls. This is a strange, unprecedented situation. The architect of the new building in the Middle East, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, claimed that the bad news is that Israel is at the center of the noise of the Iranian effort for regional supremacy and the development of nuclear weapons.
The nuclear reactor at Bushhar Iran, Photo: AP
In parallel with the diplomatic celebration, in which Israel is showing muscle in the political field, it will already in the near future face new restrictions in the field of operational activity.
Former Ambassador Ron Drummer said last week that two days after the signing of the nuclear deal, the Americans would begin to put pressure on Israel to stop its policy of attacking anything that moves in Syria.
The Americans are leaving.
But they are not leaving Israel - in the bad sense of the word.
U.S. generals have already hinted that Israel's operational activities anywhere in the region could endanger American troops. Definitely reminiscent of a statement from General Petraeus' past in the Obama days.
The nuclear deal, when it comes down to it, will add to Israel's operational constraints because the Bennett-Lapid government initially decided to tie its fate to Biden's democratic government.
Many wonder why Bennett and Lapid suddenly revolted over the issue of removing the Revolutionary Guards from the list of terrorist organizations under the agreement.
After all, on the main issues of the nuclear agreement they are in fact silent.
According to the important article in Purin Polisi, the Revolutionary Guards are at the heart of the Iranian nuclear project, the project is being carried out under their auspices, and the main power struggle in Iran is between the Revolutionary Guards and the state security system.
Israel is entering a period when the negative destructive forces in the region are gaining legitimacy: the Iranian nuclear project, the Revolutionary Guards and Syria, which is beginning to return to the Arab world.
The summit of foreign ministers gives Israel a boost, but the answer to developments on the ground is its military and intelligence power.
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