Israel is very cautious, and rightly so, of expanding the significance of the operation in Jenin so that it does not turn into a multi-front war. However, it is precisely the effort invested in this that clarifies the potential for a war of independence. History, contrary to cliché, does not repeat itself. The Second War of Independence will be fundamentally different from the first. But similarly, independence, which means the sovereignty of the Jewish people in its land, will be at the center of the war. The first, 75 years ago, was about achieving the desired independence and shaping it after a period of exile without sovereignty. The second war, today's, which may have already begun, is about the reaffirmation of independence and sovereignty. This is after cracks have opened, and are still opening, right now.
Some will question the very attempt to call what we are going through a "war of independence," since the state, despite the challenges, already exists and is even prosperous. However, the cumulative challenges of establishing sovereignty and independence are greater than the feeling intensified by the loss of control in northern Samaria, which led to the operation in Jenin.
In the Galilee and the Negev, as is well known, processes of loss of governance are increasing, the public awareness of which has increased immeasurably. The terms governance, crime, and the like diminish the national significance of things. The lines between criminal and nationalistic are blurring, and weapons collected for criminal and other purposes may be aimed at fighting the Jewish majority. The land struggle, a fundamental issue in both regions, has deep and widespread national significance.
About two weeks ago, major junctions and roads were blocked by rioters from the Druze population over the turbine affair. The roadblocks and traffic jams gave the State of Israel a taste of what might happen in the future. Imagine for a moment that the number of rioters is multiplied fivefold or tenfold, and that the infrastructure of the rioters is the Arab population, which constitutes the majority in large areas of the Galilee. And this is without the possible bonus in mixed cities such as Acre and Lod, a potential that is well known to us from the 2020-2021 pogroms in Operation Guardian of the Walls.
Recently, Kibbutz Megiddo of Hashomer Hatzair, ironically, found itself facing a practical demand for the return of the Palestinians. The residents of um al-Fahm are no longer satisfied with commemorating and remembering the Nakba, but are demanding its gradual and practical correction. This is ostensibly just some kind of return to the mosque and the cemetery, so the initiators of the move are naïve. In the background, however, it is worthwhile to familiarize yourself with the activities of Zochrot, which deals not only with memory, but with shaping the practical possibility of repairing the Nakba, with the meaning being simple: the elimination of the State of Israel in its current form or at all.
Everything described above referred only to Israel within the Green Line. In Judea and Samaria, a strategic Palestinian move, with European backing, is intensifying to take over large areas in Area C through illegal construction and while cutting off Jewish communities from vital routes. The increase in terrorism in northern Samaria, which led to the current IDF operation, only reminded us of the explosive potential in various locations.
All of these are piling up as challenges, each seemingly standing on its own, but ultimately connected by a growing Palestinian nationalist bond. In the First War of Independence we fought external enemies, in addition to internal ones. Even in the war before us, there may be a combination of an external war, combined with an internal war.
As a forward-looking policy, it is worthwhile to echo Defense Minister Yoav Galant's May 2022 remarks to the Arabs of the Land of Israel in the Knesset, in Hebrew and Arabic: "The prices you pay will be very heavy... These things that are happening now are short-term effects, because the moment will come when you will cross the red line, and when you cross the red line, the prices will be very heavy... We will reach a situation where there is no choice, and there is no choice, this is the most powerful weapon that the Jewish people have." History, as mentioned, does not repeat itself, but hostile populations should remember how the First War of Independence ended for them.
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