An in-depth look at the Land of the Cedars reveals a bleak picture. Lebanon has been in a continuous process of collapse for four years. The value of the local currency is plummeting – currently 1 US dollar is worth 15,1 liras (on the black market the exchange rate is 100 dollar per 254,36 liras), the annual inflation rate in the country is about 150 per cent and 29 per cent live below the poverty line. The average wage is about $5 a month, if there is work, because the unemployment rate is estimated at <>.<>%. Lebanon has no electricity most of the day (unless you have a private generator), and to that you add a dysfunctional health system, an outbreak of diseases and a political crisis that always connects with sectarian tensions, and the combination of the two threatens to blow up Lebanese society.
These figures should convince us that there is no chance of a northern front conflagration. Lebanon is collapsing, so Hezbollah has no desire or ability to go to war with Israel. Moreover, from within the Lebanese leadership, clear statements are being made regarding the war against Israel. For example, on 16 October, Prime Minister Najib Mikati said: "No one can predict what might happen... But no one has an interest in going on an adventure and starting a war on the front in southern Lebanon, because the Lebanese will not be able to bear it."
But if there is anything we have learned from the October 7 debacle, it is that we must not rely on basic assumptions derived from the Israeli-Western perception of the region. Hezbollah is a Shiite-Lebanese terrorist organization that is intimately connected to Iran. The identity of the organization consists of three pieces of the same puzzle: Hezbollah operates in Lebanon on behalf of the Shiite community and is committed to its interests and status. At the same time, Hezbollah presents itself as the defender of Lebanon and celebrates the Israeli withdrawal in May 2000 as a victory not only for its own, as a resistance organization to Israel and the West, but as a national-Lebanese resistance organization. Finally, Hezbollah acts in the name of believing in the need to "eliminate the Zionist entity" in Israel. He operates out of an ideological connection to Iran and is a member of the "resistance axis," which also includes Iran, Syria and Hamas. This friendship gave Hezbollah the need to act and influence, as a representative of Iran's Islamic revolution, on other fronts in the Middle East – not only in Lebanon or in the struggle against Israel, but also in Yemen and Syria.
Hezbollah is committed first and foremost to its own interests and those of Iran. In fact, the one who has been open about the matter is Prime Minister Mikati, who said on October 13 that the Lebanese government has no ability to influence the course of events, adding: "I have not received guarantees from anyone [Hezbollah] about how things can develop because circumstances are changing."
This means that regardless of Lebanon's internal situation, Hezbollah is committed first and foremost to its own interests and those of Iran. In fact, Prime Minister Mikati said on October 13 that the Lebanese government had no ability to influence the course of events, adding: "I have not received guarantees from anyone [Hezbollah] about how things can develop because circumstances are changing." In other words, Hezbollah is the sovereign, and no one in Lebanon can stand up to it.
Moreover, it is Hezbollah's commitment to its Iranian patron that has led it to develop to monstrous proportions. According to some estimates, the Shiite terrorist organization has about 150,30 rockets and 20,<>-<>,<> fighters in the regular fighting force (and the same numbers as the reserve forces), all in order to be ready for the day of command. This power in itself, apart from the presence of Hezbollah and Iran in Syria, alongside Shiite and Palestinian-Sunni militias, is a threatening and deterrent factor. But precisely because of the balance of terror, and out of the recognition that we must not allow any force that seeks to destroy Israel to grow and develop next door to us, it is necessary to act against Hezbollah.
The threat is already on the table. If Israel does not stop its military campaign in Gaza, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, then Hezbollah, a key player in the Tehran-led "resistance axis," is "ready" and "has its finger on the trigger." If Hezbollah is willing to fire the first shot, Israel must preempt and eliminate the threat from the north, otherwise we postpone the end – just like in the chain of rounds against Hamas in Gaza.
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