While Israel is busy fighting for or against the reform, regardless of what happens in Israel, Iran continues to expand its nuclear program. In addition, the Biden administration continues to promote "informal agreements" with Tehran for a deal based on freezing the status quo in uranium enrichment to 60% in exchange for the release of billions of dollars. The administration's goal is to take dealing with the nuclear problem off the table and get quiet until the 2024 elections. The proper name for these agreements, which in many ways are far worse than the JCPOA deal, is "false silence for money."
The idea behind the agreements is to freeze progress in enrichment beyond 60%, very close to the 93% level required for weapons. For the first time, the agreements grant Iran de facto permission to enrich to sixty percent, albeit without increasing the amount accumulated, in parallel with sanctions relief, i.e., win-win. Presenting the achievement as "agreements" rather than an agreement would allow the administration to avoid going to Congress, where it faces fierce opposition.
Cabinet meeting (archive), photo: Mark Israel Salem
In light of this, the most desirable situation for Israel is an Iranian decision to switch to 90% enrichment, which will stop the flow of billions to Iran. We must eliminate the illusion that a 60% freeze is meaningful. There is no real technological difference between 60% and 93%, it's just a few days/weeks. The dangerous problem arose when the administration failed to respond to the massive enrichment to 20 percent, which is about seventy percent of the time required to accumulate fissile material for a bomb.
For about ten months after the U.S. assassinated Soleimani, Tehran concluded nuclear progress, but after Biden's election and the end of Trump's "maximum pressure" doctrine, Iran lost the brakes. When Tehran feels that the U.S. is strong, they pull back, and when they feel that the U.S. is "soft," they push forward.
The centrifuges at the Iranian nuclear facility at Natanz, in 2019, photo: AP.
It is not yet clear what the US administration is marking as red lines, crossing which will lead to action that will prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Since Biden's election, under the promise of abandoning the "maximum pressure" campaign, Tehran has greatly expanded its program. It has enriched to 20, 60 and 84 percent, using advanced centrifuges. It produced the metallic uranium needed to develop the weapons system and did not cooperate with IAEA inspectors and the demand to provide answers to the agency's open investigation files.
After three years and the failure of the "maximum concessions" method, perhaps the Biden administration understood that a clear message must be sent to Iran that they will act forcefully if they switch to 90% enrichment. Acting by force is not a snapback of UN sanctions, which should have happened in the face of enrichment to 20%. The action must include a credible military threat and the use of force that the United States has.
Prime Minister Netanyahu: "We have made it clear to our American friends that more limited agreements [vis-à-vis Iran] are also unacceptable to us" // Credit: Roy Avraham/GPO
Even if Iran does not believe that the US will use military force, it will probably not make the mistake of moving to 90% enrichment. Instead, Tehran will probably follow the path it has taken in recent decades that has caused the West to accommodate the expansion of its nuclear program.
It will remain at 60% and will continue to build capabilities at the same time, including the development and production of advanced centrifuges, the development and production of ballistic missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, the development of capabilities related to the weapons system, which is what really separates Iran from the bomb, and especially the continued construction and development of the two underground sites at Natanz, the site where the advanced centrifuges are stored and the site under advanced construction that is intended, according to intelligence assessments, to be ready in about two or three years and to be used for future enrichment protected from attack, to high levels.
The Iranian nuclear reactor in the city of Bushhar // Photo: Reuters,
The world is advancing with its eyes closed to the Iranian trap, because Iran understands that enrichment below 90% is the good thing for it, so it not only decides to do so, but leverages its "agreement" not to enrich to ninety percent, in order to receive rewards from the United States and progress toward nuclear weapons on all fronts, with the Biden administration sanctifying the false quiet until the elections.
At the same time, Iran continues its aggressive activity vis-à-vis American interests in the Gulf, violates human rights, massively supports Russia in its war in Ukraine, provides it with advanced weapons, and strengthens ties with China, America's main rival. Iran is also trying to drag Israel into a multi-front confrontation, while it itself remains clean.
Israel and the United States must fight the Iranian strategy. Israel must improve its military capabilities, pose a credible military threat to Iran, and clarify to the United States its position against the emerging agreements. Congress must immediately monitor and influence the administration's missteps
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